Why do empires collapse?

One dramatic source of instability in the world is the fear of the US versus China and, probably, China versus the US. However, we all need each other. So, why do empires collapse?

China’s Positive Impact

Let us start with China, the most important concern of several other superpowers. No doubt, China has had a positive impact on the global economy. It has become the world’s largest exporter and has helped to drive global growth. It has also become a major source of investment for developing countries, helping to lift millions out of poverty. China’s investments have helped to create jobs, improve infrastructure, and spur economic growth in many countries. This has had a positive impact on the global economy and has helped to reduce poverty and inequality. China’s technological advancements have also helped to improve global communication and access to information. This has enabled people around the world to connect and share ideas, creating a more connected and informed global society. China has also been a major player in international diplomacy. It has worked to resolve conflicts and promote peace in many regions. It has also been a major contributor to global development initiatives.

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Breaking the US-China Fear Barrier

Despite periodic political disputes and commercial issues, there is no enmity between the two nations. China’s main commercial partner is the US, and there is a close economic bond between the two nations.

The US is a significant source of technology for China as well as an essential source of investment. The US and China have a long history of collaboration, and the US has played a significant role in China’s growth.

Long-standing professional relationships between scholars remain robust despite political conflicts [1].

China’s economic development and security are not threatened by the US. China is a significant global power with a robust economy. Its middle class is sizable and expanding, and it boasts the second-largest economy in the world. China has also emerged as a major player in international affairs and is a key member of the United Nations. China is a significant regional power in East Asia with a powerful military. It is a nuclear power and is becoming more powerful globally.

China is becoming a significant worldwide force and is no longer the little, impoverished nation it once was. China and the US work together on several projects.

Dr. Kevin Rudd’s “The Avoidable War” explores the potential dangers of a conflict between the U.S. and China.

They are members of the United Nations and also share a tight commercial relationship. The US invests a sizable amount of money in China, and the two countries have a long history of cooperation. The most effective piece of advice we could provide politicians is this: «Although a rethink of U.S. policy is warranted, given China’s dramatic advances and growing assertiveness, Washington should develop its response from a position of confidence» [2].

The US trade deficit

Due to robust domestic demand for imported products, as the year came to a close, the U.S. trade deficit grew in December for the second consecutive month.

According to figures from the Commerce Department released on Tuesday, the difference between imports and exports climbed by 1.8% to $80.7 billion in December, just shy of the all-time high of $80.8 billion in September.

An increase in the trade deficit of this magnitude highlighted how fast the US economy recovered from the outbreak, outpacing that of the majority of other countries [3]. In the observed oscillations, we could detect predator-prey dynamics’ distinctive hallmark.

The two nations have collaborated on several projects since they both have a stake in the region’s continued peace and stability. The United States and China are neither at war with one another nor hostile to one another. They are, as a matter of fact, the two faces of the same coin.

We may ask ourselves: do empires finish with disastrous campaigns?

Throughout history, certain empires have suffered severe military losses or failures that led to their fall or collapse. However, empires do not necessarily end with disastrous conflicts. It is especially important to keep in mind that empires are intricate systems and that their demise frequently results from a variety of interconnected elements, including political, economic, and social problems in addition to military operations.

Here are some instances of empires that had unsuccessful military operations or battles that contributed to their demise:

1. Roman Empire: The Roman Empire suffered a heavy loss at the Battle of Teutoburg Forest (9 AD), which put an end to their Germanic expansion. This action represented a turning point in Roman military history and contributed to the empire’s eventual collapse, even if the Roman Empire did not fall shortly following it.
2. Spanish Empire: The failed invasion of England by the Spanish Armada in 1588 significantly damaged Spain’s power and reputation, eroding her hegemony in Europe. Although the Spanish Empire persisted for a while after this incident, it signaled the start of the empire’s downfall.
3. Ottoman Empire: The Ottoman Empire’s armies were defeated at the Battle of Vienna in 1683, which also foreshadowed the beginning of the empire’s eventual downfall. The empire’s eventual demise was caused by its incapacity to change with the military and technical environment.
4. Napoleon’s French Empire: For Napoleon’s empire, the 1812 invasion of Russia was a disaster. The campaign cost the empire a lot of men and material resources and contributed substantially to its fall.
5. Nazi Germany: Operation Barbarossa, a failed invasion of the Soviet Union during World War II, had severe effects on the German Reich. The failure of this attempt, along with the successes of the Allies on multiple fronts caused Nazi Germany to fall apart.

These instances illustrate how unsuccessful campaigns can certainly hasten the fall of civilizations. However, rather than attributing an empire’s downfall exclusively to military shortcomings, it is crucial to take into account the larger context and several variables that contribute to its decline. For example, did D. Sebastião’s expedition in Morocco mark the beginning of Portugal’s empire’s decline?

Although King Sebastian’s (D. Sebastião) disastrous expedition in Morocco cannot be fully blamed for the collapse of the Portuguese Empire, it was a key event that weakened Portugal’s position. The Battle of Alcácer Quibir, also known as the Battle of the Three Kings, took place in Morocco in 1578 under the direction of King Sebastian. King Sebastian was assumed dead at the end of the campaign, and a sizable number of Portuguese nobles and troops were killed in the conflict.

This event had the following immediate consequences:

1. Succession crisis: After King Sebastian died without leaving an heir, Portugal faced a succession problem that eventually resulted in the establishment of the Iberian Union in 1580 when King Philip II of Spain seized the Portuguese crown. Portugal was ruled by Spain for 60 years, during which time its independence and foreign affairs were ignored.
2. Loss of influence: Portugal’s prestige in Europe and influence on the international scene were immediately harmed by the catastrophe in Morocco and the ensuing union with Spain.
3. Economic decline: During the time of Spanish domination, the Portuguese economy, which was already poor owing to competition from other European powers in international commerce, became much more fragile. Portugal found it challenging to preserve its foreign colonies and invest in its empire as a result.
4. Military vulnerability: The Portuguese empire became more vulnerable to assaults from rival powers like the Dutch and English as a consequence of the defeat of a sizeable component of the Portuguese forces at the Battle of Alcácer Quibir.

Although the Battle of Alcácer Quibir and its aftermath were crucial for the Portuguese Empire’s fall, it is important to note that other causes, such as rivalry with other European countries, financial difficulties, and internal political problems, also had a part. It is not possible to fully ascribe the Portuguese Empire’s collapse to a single event because it was a complicated process that took place over a longer period of time.

In the difficult context we live today, can a global financial system that uses two or more distinct currencies be more prosperous and stable?

Depending on a number of variables, including the economic policies of the nations involved, the collaboration between central banks, and the balance of power across various currencies, a global financial system with two or more major currencies might possibly offer more stability and prosperity.

So, let us see in more detail the advantages of a multi-currency system:

1. Diversification: Countries and investors can diversify their holdings and minimize their reliance on a single currency by using a multi-currency system. This may reduce the probability that a crisis in one currency will trigger a financial collapse on a worldwide scale.
2. Increased competition: The existence of many dominating currencies can promote competition amongst the issuing nations, fostering more responsible economic policies and financial services and goods innovation.
3. Buffer against currency fluctuations: The existence of many dominating currencies can promote competition amongst the issuing nations, fostering more responsible economic policies and financial services and goods innovation.
4. Greater resilience: A financial system with many currencies may be more robust to shocks since problems with one currency may not always have a domino effect on the entire system.

However, a multi-currency system also has potential challenges:

1. Coordination difficulties: It may be more difficult for central banks and governments to coordinate policies when there are many major currencies, especially during economic crises or when tackling global financial challenges.
2. Increased complexity: Businesses, investors, and consumers may find it more difficult to manage transactions involving various currencies and exchange rates under a multi-currency system.
3. Currency wars: Competition among nations to retain or expand the worldwide importance of their currency may result in competitive devaluations or currency manipulation.

If the relevant nations are able to successfully handle the difficulties and coordinate their efforts to foster global economic stability, a world financial system with two or more major currencies might in fact promote stability and prosperity. However, the willingness of the participating nations to cooperate and implement policies that promote a stable, balanced, and successful global economy is of the utmost importance to the system’s ability to succeed.

The promotion of international peace might, but is not guaranteed to, emerge from the multi-currency system. How nations manage their economic policies, foreign relations, and geopolitical interests will determine how a multi-currency system affects world peace. A multi-currency system could advance peace in the following ways:

1. Balance of power: A multi-currency system may result in a more equitable distribution of economic power across nations, weakening the influence of one particular country. This equilibrium could encourage collaboration and deter unilateral measures that might intensify tensions.
2. Economic interdependence: As nations participate in trade and investment activities deploying many prominent currencies, a multi-currency system may lead to a rise in economic interdependence between nations. Countries may be encouraged to maintain peaceful ties to protect their economic interests as a result of this greater interdependence.
3. Reduced economic hegemony: A multi-currency system could limit the ability of one nation to enforce economic sanctions or manipulate international financial markets in order to advance its geopolitical interests. This might promote diplomatic dispute settlement and lessen the possibility of economic warfare.

However, there are also potential challenges:

1. Economic competition: A multi-currency system may strengthen the competition between leading currency-issuing nations for dominance or boost the impact of their own currencies on the global stage. This competitiveness might raise conflicts and disputes, possibly resulting in confrontations.
2. Currency wars: To obtain a commercial advantage or enhance the status of their currency internationally, countries may engage in competitive devaluations or currency manipulation. Tensions between nations may result from such acts on the political and economic fronts.
3. Geopolitical rivalries: Multiple dominating currencies may not always reduce geopolitical rivalry caused by things other than economic power, including territory conflicts, ideological disagreements, or old resentments.

In conclusion, a multi-currency system has the potential to encourage global peace by promoting a more equal distribution of economic power and interdependence between states. However, the effectiveness of such a system in fostering peace rests on nations’ capacity to deal with difficulties brought on by economic rivals, currency manipulation, and geopolitical conflicts.

And another determinant question is: how to avoid geopolitical rivalries?

Given the complexity of international interactions and the different goals of nations, it may be difficult to totally avoid geopolitical disputes. The geopolitical competition may be managed and reduced to encourage collaboration and maintain peace, though:

1. Diplomacy and dialogue: Encourage diplomatic contact between competing nations and promote open lines of communication in order to resolve misconceptions, defuse tensions, and assist a peaceful resolution of conflicts.
2. Multilateral institutions: A framework for resolving disputes, encouraging collaboration, and ensuring that international laws are complied with to can be provided through strengthening multilateral institutions like the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and regional organizations.
3. Confidence-building measures: By bringing confidence-building measures into action, such as military-to-military exchanges, joint exercises, or information-sharing agreements, rival nations’ ties can be strengthened.
4. Economic interdependence: Trade, investment, and collaboration in areas of shared interest can encourage economic interdependence, which can incentivize the maintenance of peaceful ties and deter violent behavior.
5. Conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms: Creating and promoting methods for conflict prevention and resolution, including as arbitration, peacekeeping operations, and mediation, can aid in addressing and resolving disagreements before they become full-fledged conflicts.
6. Cultural and educational exchanges: Promoting cross-national cultural and educational exchanges may help individuals connect with one another, challenge preconceptions, and create mutual understanding, all of which can help ease tensions and rivalries.
7. Promoting shared values and norms: Promoting adherence to common standards and values, such as democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, can serve to forge an understanding of what constitutes proper conduct in international relations and lessen the likelihood of conflict.
8. Addressing the root causes of rivalries: Reduced tensions and a more stable global environment can be achieved by addressing the root reasons for geopolitical conflicts, such as resource competitiveness, old disputes, or ideological disagreements.

Geopolitical rivalries may not be entirely avoidable, but by taking a proactive and all-encompassing approach that emphasizes diplomacy, multilateral cooperation, and conflict prevention, we can manage and reduce the risks brought on by these rivalries, ultimately promoting a more peaceful world. Will the USA and China’s economic interconnectedness avert the possibility of conflict between these two countries?

The probability of war between the United States and China can be minimized through their economic interdependence, but this does not mean that war will be entirely averted. The reasoning for this is that when two countries have close economic links, keeping such ties is more important to them than taking steps that would jeopardize their shared economic interests.

In the particular case of the United States and China, both nations’ economies are intricately entwined. The United States is a large market for Chinese products and China is a substantial supplier of items to the country. Additionally, both nations make significant economic investments in one another. Due to their high economic interdependence, both countries have tremendous interests to keep their ties calm.

Economic interconnectedness does not, however, guarantee that a conflict will not arise. Despite their economic links, geopolitical, ideological, and military challenges can still cause tensions and even lead to future wars between states. There are a number of continuing issues between the U.S. and China that might increase tensions, including conflicts over human rights and democratic systems, rivalry for influence in the Asia-Pacific area, disputes in the South China Sea, and worries about technology and cybersecurity.

The United States and China must cooperate to address these issues and manage tensions via diplomacy, communication, and collaboration in areas of shared interest if they are to reduce the likelihood of a confrontation. Economic interdependence has the potential to be a powerful conflict deterrent, but it is important to understand that it is only one aspect of the complicated connection between these two nations. An all-encompassing strategy that takes into account the numerous facets of their bilateral relationship will be necessary to maintain peace and stability. For this purpose, International Institute and specialized personnel exist to assist administrations and governments. these institutions may develop AI language models, such as the Python notebook available below for predicting issues related to the topics discussed above, such as economic interdependence or geopolitical rivalries. The notebook uses a simple linear regression model to predict the level of economic interdependence between countries based on their trade data.

1. Import necessary libraries:

pythonCopy code

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

1. Load and preprocess the data: Load a dataset with trade data between countries (e.g., from the World Bank or another reliable source); Clean and preprocess the data, such as removing missing values and aggregating data at the country level

pythonCopy code# Load your dataset here (e.g., CSV or Excel file)
# data = pd.read_csv("your_trade_data.csv")

# Preprocess the data# ...Prepare the data for training and testing

pythonCopy code# Split the data into features (X) and target (y) variables
X = data[['feature_1', 'feature_2', ...]]
y = data['economic_interdependence']

# Split the data into training and testing sets
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

1. Train the linear regression model:
   # Create a linear regression model
   model = LinearRegression()

# Train the model with the training data
model.fit(X_train, y_train)

1. Evaluate the model’s performance:

# Make predictions on the test set
y_pred = model.predict(X_test)

# Calculate the mean squared error of the predictions
mse = mean_squared_error(y_test, y_pred)
print(f"Mean Squared Error: {mse}")
# Visualize the predicted vs. actual values
plt.scatter(y_test, y_pred)
plt.xlabel("Actual Economic Interdependence")
plt.ylabel("Predicted Economic Interdependence")
plt.title("Actual vs. Predicted Economic Interdependence")
plt.show()

Predicting geopolitical rivalries or conflict risk would require more complex models and additional data sources, such as political, military, and historical information. For this example, we’ll use the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) dataset, which can be accessed through the wbdata library. You can install the library using pip:

install wbdata

Here’s an outline of the notebook:

1. Import necessary libraries:

pythonCopy codeimport wbdata
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import datetime
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

1. Set the date range and fetch the data:

pythonCopy code
# Set the date range
start_date = datetime.datetime(2000, 1, 1)
end_date = datetime.datetime(2020, 1, 1)

# Fetch the data
trade_data = wbdata.get_data("NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS", country=["USA", "CHN"], data_date=(start_date, end_date), pandas=True)
military_data = wbdata.get_data("MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS", country=["USA", "CHN"], data_date=(start_date, end_date), pandas=True)
# Combine the datasets
data = pd.concat([trade_data, military_data], axis=1)
data.columns = ["trade", "military"]
data.reset_index(inplace=True)

1. Preprocess the data:

pythonCopy code
# Drop missing values
data.dropna(inplace=True)

# Create a feature for the interaction between USA and China trade
data["interaction"] = data["trade"]["USA"] * data["trade"]["CHN"]

1. Prepare the data for training and testing:

pythonCopy code
# Split the data into features (X) and target (y) variables
X = data[["interaction"]]
y = data["military"]["USA"]

# Split the data into training and testing sets
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

1. Train the linear regression model:

pythonCopy code
# Create a linear regression model
model = LinearRegression()

# Train the model with the training data
model.fit(X_train, y_train)

1. Evaluate the model’s performance:

pythonCopy code
# Make predictions on the test set
y_pred = model.predict(X_test)

# Calculate the mean squared error of the predictions
mse = mean_squared_error(y_test, y_pred)
print(f"Mean Squared Error: {mse}")
# Visualize the predicted vs. actual values
plt.scatter(y_test, y_pred)
plt.xlabel("Actual Military Expenditure (% of GDP)")
plt.ylabel("Predicted Military Expenditure (% of GDP)")
plt.title("Actual vs. Predicted Military Expenditure for the USA")
plt.show()

This is a simple linear regression model that tries to predict the USA’s military expenditure as a percentage of GDP based on the interaction between the USA and China’s trade as a percentage of GDP.

But notwithstanding the economic and financial aspects, we might question if a particular state of mind might bring empire leaders to their downfall. There are several traits and attitudes that have historically aided in the demise of empires, even if it is challenging to pin the fall of empires entirely on the mindset of their rulers. These characteristics can hasten the fall of an empire when coupled with other elements including economic, social, and geopolitical problems. Some examples of these qualities are:

1. Overconfidence and arrogance: Overconfident leaders may misunderstand prospective dangers, disregard their advisers’ counsel, or launch rash military operations, which might ultimately bring about the collapse of their empire.
2. Greed and corruption: The pursuit of individual wealth and authority may end in widespread corruption, resource misallocation, and disregard for the interests of everyone. The basis of the empire may be weakened and societal upheaval may result.
3. Autocratic rule and centralization of power: One ruler or a tiny elite holding all the way can result in bad judgment and a lack of accountability. If the oligarch loses touch with the problems that his or her subjects experience or if the ruling class starts caring more about maintaining its own power than the health of the empire, this might hasten the downfall of the empire.
4. Inflexibility and resistance to change: Whether it is a new technology, altering geopolitical environments, or changing social ideals, leaders who are unable or unwilling to adapt to these changes risk having their empires lag behind and finally collapse.
5. Paranoia and mistrust: An environment of dread and instability may be created by leaders who have an overly high level of paranoia or suspicion of others, including their advisers and subjects. This can result in poor decision-making, internal conflict, and a decline in loyalty among their followers.
6. Neglect of essential institutions: A leader might damage the basis of the empire and increase its susceptibility to both internal and external challenges by neglecting to invest in and maintain crucial institutions like the military, infrastructure, and bureaucracy.
7. Overextension: The drive to constantly expand an empire can result in overextension, which can strain its troops and resources, make it difficult to retain control over its borders, and leave it vulnerable to both internal and foreign attacks.

It is crucial to remember that empires frequently fall as a consequence of a number of reasons, and a leader’s mental health is only one of many considerations. The attitude of the ruler, external forces, and internal problems interact to define an empire’s future.

REFS:

[1] NATURE INDEX, 09 March 2022, US–China partnerships bring strength in numbers to big science projects, James Mitchell Crow

[2] The U.S. Shouldn’t Be Afraid of China, MARCH 8, 2021 • COMMENTARY by Doug Bandow

[3] Chart of the day: U.S. trade deficit widens, FEB. 8, 2022 BY TUAN NGUYEN

Following are a few hyperlinks to academic articles that examine the advantages, drawbacks, and stability of a multi-currency global financial system:

1. Eichengreen, B., & Flandreau, M. (2009). The rise and fall of the dollar (or when did the dollar replace sterling as the leading reserve currency?). European Review of Economic History, 13(3), 377–411.
2. Rey, H. (2013). Dilemma not trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper №21162.
3. Eichengreen, B., Mehl, A., & Chitu, L. (2014). Stability or upheaval? The currency composition of international reserves in the long run. European Central Bank, Working Paper №1715. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1715.en.pdf
4. Papaioannou, E., Portes, R., & Siourounis, G. (2006). Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 20(4), 508–547.
5. Obstfeld, M., Shambaugh, J. C., & Taylor, A. M. (2009). Financial instability, reserves, and central bank swap lines in the panic of 2008. American Economic Review, 99(2), 480–486.

They discuss a variety of topics relating to a multi-currency world financial system, such as the evolution of major reserve currencies, the impact of global financial cycles on the independence of monetary policy, the make-up of international reserves, and central bank coordination during financial crises.